Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
0.0
7
38,286
U.S. stocks are showing a lack of direction in morning trading on Wednesday
Nifty
0.2
19
11,571
following the strength seen in the previous session. The major averages have spent
Mid Cap
0.5
86
16,563
the morning bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line. The Dow Jones
Small Cap
0.3
57
16,947
was down by 0.2% to 25,772 and the Nasdaq was down by 0.1% to 7,856.
Bankex
(0.0)
(5)
31,964
U.K. shares recovered from early losses to turn higher during the last trading
session and the pound held below two-week highs as investors awaited the outcome
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
of Brexit negotiations. The benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.2% to 7,575.
Dow Jones
(0.2)
(50)
25,772
On domestic front, Indian Indian markets remain closed on Wednesday for Bakri Id.
Nasdaq
(0.1)
(3)
7,856
However benchmark indexes Sensex and the Nifty hit fresh record highs on Tuesday
FTSE
0.2
10
7,575
before giving up gains to end on a flat note while the rupee closed marginally
higher at 69.81 per dollar. The BSE Sensex remains flat to 38,286.
Nikkei
0.1
21
22,220
Hang Seng
0.6
155
27,753
News Analysis
Shanghai Com
1.3
35
2,734
Lupin gets USFDA approval for generic oral contraceptive tablets
UltraTech gets CCI nod to acquire Century Textiles cement business
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,338
1,007
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Declines
1,413
816
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
160
92
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Volumes (` Cr)
Refer Pg5 onwards
BSE
2,847
NSE
32,504
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
684
867
26.8
FII
(1,336)
169
-3,241
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Accumulate
666
720
8.1
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
300
410
36.7
*MFs
15
155
72,753
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,030
1,080
4.9
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
402
589
46.5
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
More Top Picks on Pg4
KAJARIACER
458
10.5
Key Upcoming Events
KRBL
388
8.9
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
KEC
316
7.3
ReadingExpectations
Aug 23, 2018 Germany PMI Services
54.10
54.30
CESC
1006
7.0
Aug 23, 2018 US
Initial Jobless claims
212.00
215.00
CUMMINSIND
756
6.7
Aug 23, 2018 Germany PMI Manufacturing
56.90
56.50
Aug 23, 2018 Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
2.30
2.30
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Aug 23, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
(0.60)
(0.70)
More Events on Pg7
TATASTEELPP
142
-8.4
HDIL
32
-4.9
AMARAJABAT
865
-3.1
JETAIRWAYS
292
-2.9
IBREALEST
143
-2.9
As on Aug 21, 2018
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
News Analysis
Lupin gets USFDA approval for generic oral contraceptive tablets
Drug major Lupin has received approval from the US health regulator to
market Nudovra tablets, used to prevent pregnancy, in the American market. The
company has received tentative approval for its Nudovra (Estradiol Valerate
Tablets, 3 mg and 1 mg and Estradiol Valerate and Dienogest Tablets, 2 mg/2 mg
and
2
women to prevent pregnancy, is a generic version of Bayer HealthCare
Pharmaceuticals Inc's Natazia tablets. As per IQVIA MAT June
data, Nudovra tablets had annual sales of around $31.4 million in the US.
UltraTech gets CCI nod to acquire Century Textiles cement business
approval for the share swap deal between the companies, Ultratech said in a
regulatory filing. On May 20, UltraTech said it would acquire the cement business
deal, a move which would further consolidate its position as market leader in the
August 21, 2018 informed the company that it has approved the proposed
combination under sub-section (1) of section 31 of the Competition Act, 2012.
Economic and Political News
Government imposes restrictions on import of bio-fuels, including ethyl
Corporate News
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
6,586
684
867
26.8
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once operating
environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
20,894
666
720
8.1
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,18,017
339
416
22.8
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,151
402
589
46.5
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,893
332
475
43.2
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,463
526
851
61.9
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,75,045
9,105
10,820
18.8
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,907
354
591
66.9
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in
NIM improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
2,035
913
1,000
9.5
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
31,336
142
218
53.1
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,523
300
410
36.7
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,67,771
2,095
2,350
12.2
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
1,19,073
958
1,050
9.6
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,924
930
1,230
32.2
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
13,238
1,030
1,080
4.9
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
30,124
1,328
1,764
32.8
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at
27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
19,910
206
327
58.7
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaulder
1,599
1,095
1,200
9.6
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
38,807
662
780
18.1
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
90,178
391
435
11.3
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
25,215
597
670
12.3
level ROA
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
7,072
6,070
7,500
23.6
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
2,190
99
127
27.0
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
37,736
129
156
21.9
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,514
264
360
36.3
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,942
1,972
2,178
10.5
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,594
2,010
2,500
24.4
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,457
200
333
66.2
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
37,215
186
210
12.7
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Aug 23, 2018
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Services
Value
Aug P
54.10
54.30
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Aug 18
212.00
215.00
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug P
56.90
56.50
11:30 AMGermany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2Q F
2.30
2.30
7:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Aug A
(0.60)
(0.70)
Aug 24, 2018
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Jul
631.00
645.00
Aug 28, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Aug
127.40
126.50
Aug 29, 2018
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q S
4.10
4.00
Aug 30, 2018
1:25 PMGermany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Aug
(6.00)
Aug 31, 2018
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
51.20
Sep 03, 2018
2:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
54.00
Sep 07, 2018
2:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q F
0.40
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Aug
157.00
200.00
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Aug
3.90
3.80
Sep 08, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
12.20
Sep 10, 2018
7:00 AMChina
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Aug
2.10
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.10
Sep 11, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Jobless claims change
% Change
Aug
6.20
Sep 12, 2018
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Aug
28.81
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
14.32
5:30 PMIndia
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Jul
7.00
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Aug
0.20
Sep 13, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Aug
0.20
4:30 PMUK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Sep 13
0.75
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
6.9
7.0
8.0
8.1
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
4.8
4.8
6.1
6.3
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
z
6.0
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
54.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
52.0
4.0
3.6
3.3
3.3
50.0
3.0
48.0
2.0
46.0
1.0
44.0
42.0
-
40.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
76,328
(1.5)
(8.1)
13.3
Russia
Micex
4,249
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,552
5.6
9.8
17.6
China
Shanghai Composite
2,698
(3.4)
(14.9)
(14.8)
South Africa
Top 40
51,102
2.2
(0.6)
4.6
Mexico
Mexbol
48,785
0.1
7.0
(4.5)
Indonesia
LQ45
926
1.5
1.5
(2.6)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,788
1.6
(3.6)
0.5
Thailand
SET 50
1,126
4.9
(3.3)
12.0
USA
Dow Jones
25,759
2.8
4.2
18.7
UK
FTSE
7,591
(1.2)
(3.4)
2.8
Japan
Nikkei
22,199
(2.5)
(3.5)
13.6
Germany
DAX
12,331
(1.2)
(4.4)
1.5
France
CAC
5,380
0.4
(2.6)
6.2
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 21 August, 2018
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
Open
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
Open
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
Aug 23, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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